Current sanctions. Economic sanctions against Russia: reasons, analysis, lists, consequences

In early August, the United States published a congressional bill introducing new sanctions against individuals and companies in the Russian Federation, as well as against public debt, which caused panic in the foreign exchange markets. At the same time, the US State Department announced that President Trump had signed a ban on the supply of dual-use electronics to Russia, which will come into force on August 22. According to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the measures presented will not cause serious damage to the country’s economy as a whole.

On August 8, 2018, the American Congress announced new US sanctions against the Russian Federation, including measures of influence in various areas. The State Department did not stand aside either. He also announced the introduction of new restrictions.

Who wants to impose sanctions against the Russian Federation

Three US governance structures plan to introduce new sanctions against the Russian Federation at once:

• Congress;
• State Department;
• President Trump personally.

The most stringent and aggressive proposals are from Congress. The President proposes a softer solution to the issue.

Why are new sanctions being introduced?

The US Congress announced the bill “Protecting American Security from Kremlin Aggression,” developed jointly by Democratic and Republican senators, introducing restrictions on working with Russian state banks and external public debt. The basis was:

• the ongoing, according to congressmen, interference of the Russian Federation in the electoral process in the United States;
• actions of the Russian Federation in Ukraine;
• spread of chaos in Syria.

The State Department decided to impose sanctions because of the Skripal case, i.e. due to Russia's use of chemical weapons.

Important! The State Department sanctions are not imposed at the request of President Trump, but according to American legislation providing for restrictive measures for the use of chemical weapons.

The Trump administration, for its part, is developing a decree imposing sanctions for interference in American elections.

What sanctions are proposed to be introduced?

The US Congress sanctions bill provides for the introduction of the following restrictions:

• personal restrictions against Russian politicians and entrepreneurs who promote illegal activities at the direction of President Putin, direct or indirect - entry ban, seizure of accounts and property;
• a ban on cooperation with Russian oil companies, including the employment of American citizens in them, as well as investments in;
• Individual restrictions will be imposed on all individuals found to be conducting illegal activities in cyberspace and interfering in American political processes.

As part of personal restrictions, American insurance companies are required to report to government authorities about persons and companies from Russia purchasing in the United States. If Congress decides that a given person is close to Putin, the property will be seized.

Reference! This is not the first time that the United States has tried to impose sanctions against Russian government debt, but these initiatives have not yet received development.

US State Department sanctions:

• a ban on the supply of dual-use components and electronic devices to the Russian Federation;
• a ban on aircraft flying into the US;
• decline in the level of diplomatic relations.

A complete ban on the export of American-made goods to Russia is also possible. However, there are exceptions - these are areas of cooperation such as space, i.e. the ban will not apply to electronic devices necessary for the development of the space industry.

President Donald Trump's order does not, in fact, introduce new restrictions, but only gives him permission to personally impose them against individuals and foreign companies spreading disinformation and interfering in US elections. The President is given the right to impose restrictions on ten of the thirty largest companies in any state.

Important! As of today, Congressional sanctions and Trump’s Executive Order are just a draft. They are subject to change. In reality, only the first package of State Department restrictions comes into effect on August 22.

Timing of sanctions

The State Department's measures are divided into two packages. The first, which will come into force on August 22, implies restrictions on the supply of dual-use electronics. The second package is planned to be introduced in three months, i.e. in the end of November. It may include all other declared measures of influence.

Consequences

The head of the Russian Ministry of Finance, Anton Seluyanov, is confident that, first of all, American investors will suffer from the new measures, since the ban on the purchase of Russian debt bonds deprives them of a guaranteed stable income.

In connection with the latest news, the Ministry of Finance and analysts provide three possible consequences:

• positive;
• negative;
• moderate.

According to the first, positive scenario, restrictions will be expanded only by adding new companies and individuals to “black” lists. This will not cause any significant damage to the Russian economy, since this type of impact has been used by the Americans for several years and everyone has already become accustomed to it and adapted. This particular scenario is considered the most likely. The explanation for this is simple: the ban on holding and purchasing Russian debt securities has negative consequences, first of all, for the Americans themselves. Investors are in no hurry to sell Russian debt bonds. In addition, in recent days the Ministry of Finance has successfully placed additional issues of securities in the amounts of 15 and 25 million rubles.

Important! Currently, the market is experiencing an increase in quotes for Russian federal loan bonds. Of course, in connection with this, their yield decreased by 7%, but this confirms the demand for securities.

The moderate scenario for the development of events provides for the introduction of restrictions against government debt, but only on new issues of securities. In this case, American investors will have to be replaced. The Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance are already preparing for this option, but do not expect a significant impact on the country’s economy.

In the worst case scenario, US sanctions on Russia's national debt will be imposed in full. This will entail:

• releasing a large number of securities onto the market in the shortest possible time;
• within 30%;
• losses for holders forced to sell securities.

The expert opinion of analysts on the consequences of the introduction of new sanctions can be found by watching the video

According to Maria Zakharova, a representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Russia is preparing retaliatory “mirror” sanctions. They are being worked on and will be adopted depending on US actions.

What sanctions have already been introduced in 2018

Since the beginning of 2018, the United States and the European Union have already imposed sanctions against Russia.

Table 2. US and EU sanctions against the Russian Federation introduced in 2018

Anti-Russian sanctions were introduced after the escalation of the conflict in the south-east of Ukraine and the holding of a referendum on the status of Crimea. Initially, the United States and the European Union imposed personal sanctions against a number of politicians, banning them from entering their territory and announcing the freezing of their financial assets (if any) in Western banks.

Gradually, the list of these persons, as well as the types of sanctions and the number of countries that joined them, expanded. Russia responded with its own food counter-sanctions.

Three years later, we can say that everyone felt the negative consequences of the restrictions - both those who introduced them and those against whom they were directed. “We often repeat as a mantra that the notorious sanctions do not really affect us. They do. And first of all, I see a threat in limiting the transfer of technology,” Vladimir Putin stated last October during the “Russia Calling” forum. This, by the way, harms not only the Russian economy, but the world economy as a whole, because the Russian economy is, of course, an important sector of the global economy."

At the same time, experts also note the positive effect of sanctions on a number of sectors of the economy.

Personal sanctions

Initially, the EU sanctions list included 21 people, the US - 7.

But the lists have constantly expanded and now 78 federal politicians, officials and military personnel, 29 politicians from Crimea and Sevastopol, 16 businessmen and four public figures are under sanctions from different countries.

Negative consequences. “The economic and political effect of personal sanctions is negligible. Of course, some may be afraid of getting into such a situation, especially if they connect their future and the future of their children with Europe or the United States through foreign assets. But these are personal stories, the effect is invisible on a national scale,” - says Vice President of the Center for Political Technologies Alexey Makarkin.

Positive effect. “Individual officials and businessmen can turn their inclusion on such lists into immunity, additional apparatus weight and opportunities. Since he suffered for the national interest, then now we cannot touch him; on the contrary, we must help,” continues Makarkin. In addition, sanctions contribute to the consolidation and “nationalization” of the elite, which is now increasingly connecting itself with the country, including financially.

Financial sanctions

Negative consequences. The main problem is the ban on lending to Russian banks and companies from Western banks. This has sharply reduced Russian business's access to "cheap" money. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, if in 2013 Russian issuers raised $46.4 billion on the Eurobond market alone, then in 2015 - only about $5 billion.

It was profitable to refinance loans in European and American banks without diverting fixed assets to pay interest on old loans. As a result, companies could invest them in development. Experts from the Institute of National Economic Forecasting (INP) of the Russian Academy of Sciences calculated in 2015 that “the Russian economy is forced to make up for $160-200 billion of lost borrowed resources.” That is, this money must either be sought in Asian banks, which cannot be done quickly, or taken from one’s own working capital. As a result, money that could be spent on business development is often spent on paying interest on old loans.

At the same time, the ban on lending to Russian companies also affected European bankers. Experts from the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences predicted “annual losses of European institutions of $8-10 billion” - we are talking about unpaid interest on unissued loans. A recent study by the Austrian Institute for Economic Research (WIFO), published in Der Standard, confirmed these figures even “with overlap”: in 2015 alone, Europeans missed out on 17 billion euros in benefits.

Positive effect. Russian business began to look for alternative ways and enter Asian financial markets, which was often not done before simply because of the habit of taking money from “convenient” Western sources.

For example, Gazprom first raised $1.5 billion from a consortium of Chinese banks in 2015, and last year agreed with the Bank of China on a loan of 2 billion euros. At the beginning of February this year, US Rusal expressed its intention to place bonds worth 10 billion yuan ($1.5 billion) on the Shanghai Exchange.

Russian companies have proven that they can find strategic investors not only in the USA and Europe. A case in point is the sale of a 19.5% stake in Rosneft. Many analysts doubted until recently that in conditions when Western investors were prohibited from investing in Rosneft shares, it would even find an investor. But the shares were bought by the international consortium Glencore and the Qatar sovereign fund

Another positive point: in response to attempts to limit payments by a number of banks in the Visa and MasterCard systems, the national payment system Mir was successfully launched in Russia.

Restrictions on the export of equipment and technology

The USA, the EU and a number of other countries have banned the supply of military and dual-use goods to Russia, any cooperation of their companies with enterprises of the Russian defense industry, the supply of equipment necessary for the development of oil and gas fields on the Arctic shelf and in shale formations (drilling platforms, equipment for horizontal drilling, high pressure pumps, etc.).

Negative consequences. The most noticeable impact for the Russian defense industry was the cessation of military-technical cooperation with Ukraine.

Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin reported that Russia cannot complete the construction of a number of ships for the needs of the Navy due to the suspension of supplies of Ukrainian gas turbine units. It is well known that today frigates of projects 11356 (series for the Black Sea Fleet) and 22350 (the newest frigate "Admiral Gorshkov") for the Russian Navy were equipped with Ukrainian engines. The construction of a number of ships had to be suspended. The same applies to some other types of military equipment.

But the defense industry's dependence on imported technologies is disproportionately less than in the energy sector. It is the energy sector that sanctions will have the most long-term and painful impact, experts from the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences note. According to their calculations, the slowdown in the development of new fields, in the most negative scenario, will lead to the fact that “by 2030, the volume of oil produced could be reduced by 15%.”

Meanwhile, the Western economy is also suffering greatly from the embargo on the supply of equipment. " If we look at oil drilling and cooperation in this area, machinery and equipment worth several billion euros remain unsold due to sanctions,” said Henrik Hololei, Deputy Secretary General of the European Commission, in an interview with Postimees.

In addition, if oil production in Russia really decreases, this will push prices up and “given the current volumes of oil and gas consumption in the EU, this factor could lead to additional losses of $3 billion per year,” notes the work of experts from the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Thus, the early lifting of sanctions in the energy sector is beneficial to both parties.

Positive effect. Problems with imported, and, above all, Ukrainian components, sharply accelerated the implementation of the import substitution program in the military sphere. According to Dmitry Rogozin, within the framework of this program, production is being launched in Russia for 186 items that were previously produced in Ukraine.

According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, by the end of 2016, Russian defense industry enterprises had completed 70-80% of the plan for “Ukrainian” import substitution, and this figure will reach 100% in 2018.

Thus, Rybinsk NPO Saturn will begin supplying gas turbine engines for warships at the end of 2017 - beginning of 2018.

Another example is engines for helicopters, which were supplied to us by the Zaporozhye plant "Motor Sich". “These engines were created at the Klimov Design Bureau in St. Petersburg, then the design documentation was transferred to Zaporozhye, and mass production was established there. Now a serial plant has been built near St. Petersburg for the production of such engines and, although it cannot yet completely replace the Motor- Sich, "we are still able to compensate for the need for engines for our combat helicopters," says TASS military observer Viktor Litovkin

It is planned to produce in Russia about 300-320 engines per year for the Mi-28, Ka-52, Mi-35, Mi-17 and Ka-32 helicopters. 250 of them are intended for the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the rest - for foreign customers.

Problems with import substitution were also resolved at the Tactical Missile Arms Corporation (KTRV), the main manufacturer of Russian aircraft missiles.

“For example, there are air-to-air missiles that were designed at the State Design Bureau Vympel, and some components were Ukrainian-made. We created a new missile, its export version is called RVV-MD, on a completely domestic element base,” notes the head KTRV Boris Obnosov.

He noted that there was the same problem with the Kh-35E anti-ship missile. Today, a new X-35UE missile with an increased range has been created, equipped with a Russian engine produced by NPO Saturn.

Food counter-sanctions from Russia

The essence of sanctions. In 2014, Russia imposed an embargo on supplies to the country for “certain types of agricultural products, raw materials and food, the country of origin of which is the state that decided to impose economic sanctions against Russia.” The list includes meat and dairy products, vegetables, fruits, nuts, etc.

Negative consequences. At first, counter-sanctions contributed to rising food inflation. As a result, this was one of the factors that, for the first time in many years, double-digit inflation was recorded in the country in 2014 - 11.4%, and in 2015 it was 12.9%.

The problem of product quality has become a little more acute. Thus, in 2015, the head of Rosselkhoznadzor Sergei Dankvert reported that the share of counterfeit dairy products (using vegetable fats) in Russia amounted to 11%, and among some types of products - up to 50%.

However, the main negative effect of Russian sanctions was on European agricultural producers. In 2015 alone, exports of food products from EU countries to Russia decreased by 29%, European producers lost 2.2 billion euros in profit, and 130 thousand jobs were at risk.

Positive effect. "Positive effect (from the introduction of counter-sanctions. - Note TASS), of course there is, - Andrei Danilenko, head of the committee on agro-industrial policy of the Business Russia association, tells TASS. - There are details and nuances, but overall import substitution has worked. Today we are one of the largest exporters of grain; we largely provide ourselves with meat and milk."

According to the National Meat Association (NMA), Russia's self-sufficiency in poultry meat is currently almost 100%, in pork - 90%, in beef - 65%. The Cabinet of Ministers, in turn, believes that Russia provides itself with milk by 75%. Danilenko notes that “in terms of milk production costs, Russia is more competitive than the EU, USA and South America,” but the industry is greatly hampered by the high cost of loans.

To date, the impact of food sanctions on inflation has also been minimized. At the end of 2016, it amounted to only 5.4%.

Today, one of the most pressing topics is the application of sanctions against the Russian Federation by the European Union and the United States. The fairness of such actions in relation to our country raises many questions and disputes, as do the events that gave rise to them. But at the moment, something else is important: what goal are pursued by those who have imposed such political and economic restrictions on Russia? And what are the consequences of these sanctions? To answer these questions, it is necessary to consider both theoretical and practical aspects of the problem.

Concept

In the broad sense of the word, a sanction is a measure of influence aimed at restricting any type of activity. Sanctions are expressed in a ban on the implementation of various trade and economic agreements, measures to impede the political activities of a certain company or the state as a whole. Such restrictions can be partial or complete. For example, if we consider trade sanctions, the ban may apply to the import or export of a specific product. A full-fledged sanction implies a ban on all economic relations of a company or country with other subjects of a market economy.

Such measures of influence also have a downside. Sometimes a commercial or political entity that applies sanctions against another entity suffers more than the one to whom these prohibitions were addressed. After all, a state whose certain activities are prohibited can establish retaliatory restrictions. That is why we should not forget that a sanction is an ambiguous phenomenon, the appearance of which can lead to unpredictable consequences.

Types of prohibitions

In the context of the current political situation, it is necessary to consider penalties in international law. They should never be confused with responsibility. Thus, the country that violates the agreements bears responsibility for its misconduct. Sanctions, in turn, can be applied by the state whose rights have been violated. The violator of international treaties is obliged to bear responsibility for his illegal actions, and the injured party has the right to apply sanctions.

There are two types of prohibitions: collective and individual. Collective restrictions are those that follow in response to violations of international law and imply the suspension of membership in an alliance with other states, as well as a collective armed conflict with the offender.

Individual sanctions are most often associated with any legal restrictions on the activities of a particular state, the rupture of trade and other agreements, non-recognition of the position of the offender, and strengthened self-defense in the event of armed clashes.

Purposes of restrictions

Penalties usually serve several purposes. Firstly, such restrictions are aimed at changing the political system of the violating state. Political prohibitions may also apply to a specific area of ​​activity. A change in the regime of government, by the way, will most likely be an impetus for a change in political direction, so a sanction is a fairly effective way to achieve changes in one’s own interests in this area.

Secondly, sanctions are aimed at reducing the number of weapons a particular state has. Such actions help reduce the risk of armed confrontations and hostilities throughout the country.

Thirdly, sanctions may prohibit the entry of any individuals into the territory of a certain state or, on the contrary, force some people to leave the territory of a certain country.

Sanctions against the Russian Federation

The main political leaders of the Western powers have come to the decision that the Russian Federation is carrying out many military and political operations illegally. In this regard, our country was subjected to a number of restrictions, which significantly affected the lives of the top officials of the state and ordinary residents.

Russians faced two types of sanctions: economic and political. The former have already been reflected in rising prices for imported goods and rising dollar and euro exchange rates.

Economic sanctions against Russia

Sanctions against the Russian Federation are measures from which our country has been suffering over the past year. Or does he not suffer? In any case, restrictions for “violations” of international law were imposed on Russia. What economic sanctions have the European Union and the United States imposed on the Russian Federation? First of all, this is an artificial growth of the euro and dollar, not supported by anything. For the first time in the history of international relations, the exchange rate of Western currencies was so high against the ruble. Today the situation has stabilized a little, but the rate still remains extremely high. All this threatened and continues to threaten a financial crisis and even a collapse and depreciation of the Russian currency.

As a result, many goods imported from European countries have become more expensive. Global brands have increased the amount that Russian companies must pay to produce products on their territory.

This is exactly what economic sanctions have become. The Russian Federation, according to experts, will not be able to emerge from the financial crisis earlier than in two years.

Political sanctions against the Russian Federation

A sanction is not only an economic, but also a political restriction. The countries of the European Union and the United States, as a “punishment” for the illegal, in their opinion, actions of the Russian Federation towards Ukraine, banned a group of Russian officials and oligarchs from entering their territory, and also froze their accounts in foreign banks.

Barack Obama, by the way, never came to support American athletes at the Winter Olympics in Sochi last year. All this is an expression of hostility towards Russian politics and disrespect for world traditions.

Did such actions towards Russia lead to anything? Political sanctions have not produced any significant results. Of course, it has become much more difficult for citizens of our country to obtain a visa to the States and European countries; it now costs more, but in general the sanctions did not affect the foreign policy of the Russian Federation towards Ukraine.

Methods of confrontation

Many economic and political prohibitions were introduced against our country. But the West itself already understands the disadvantage of severing relations with the Russian Federation, since many Eurozone countries have felt the impact of Russia’s retaliatory sanctions. In our country there are branches of more than 20 German companies, which, due to economic restrictions, are losing money, since the purchasing power of Russians has sharply decreased over the past year. In addition, approximately 300 thousand workers in Germany depend on trade relations with the Russian Federation, so EU sanctions hit not only our country, but also its key members.

Many European countries, by the way, oppose sanctions against the Russian Federation. States such as Italy, Greece, Hungary, Austria, Spain do not want to continue punitive measures, since it is not profitable for them to spoil trade and political relations with such a strong power.

Possible consequences of sanctions

One of the main consequences for our state may be the impossibility of conducting financial transactions through some EU countries. That is, the Government of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Finance will have to look for ways to solve this problem through the territories of other states.

What other difficulties will Western sanctions entail? Russia will not be able, for example, to achieve significant economic growth (no more than 2-2.5%). According to experts, GDP may increase by only 1%. There remains a risk of reduced investment from both foreign and domestic enterprises in the event of a heated foreign policy situation.

EU and US sanctions against Russia can be assessed differently, but their impact on the economic and political situation of the country cannot be ignored. What exactly have Western countries done and how does this threaten Russia?

Worldwide hysteria has been going on for several months, with the goal of fooling the Western public and presenting Russia as a sort of modern monster, an enemy of the entire civilized world. Economic sanctions were announced with great fanfare, which, according to their authors, should punish and “bring some sense” to Russia.

A careful consideration and analysis of the most announced sanctions and their consequences indicates that no one really wants economic and political aggravation, and the loudmouthing of politicians is nothing more than a game for the public.

Reacting to the Crimean events, the USA, EU, Canada and some other countries loudly announced the introduction of sanctions against Russia. The promptly compiled lists consisted of individuals who, in the opinion of those imposing sanctions, were involved in the “annexation” of Crimea.

The Russians listed in them were subject to visa restrictions and asset freezes in the countries that were imposing sanctions. Companies from these countries were also prohibited from having business contacts with individuals and organizations on these lists.

Here are some “terrible” steps for Russia that some countries have taken:

• Among a dozen more sanctions, the United States banned the entry of State Duma deputy Elena Mizulina;
• Switzerland has stopped the process of creating an FTA (free trade area) with the Customs Union (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan). In addition to the one mentioned, three more sanctions were introduced;
• Ukraine turned out to be more modest: due to biased coverage of Ukrainian events, it was announced that the broadcast of the Rossiya TV channel on its territory would be stopped. In addition, another sanction was introduced;
• Among the eight sanctions adopted, Canada decided to expel all Russian military personnel from its territory;
• Latvia was especially overzealous: among the 13 sanctions, a restriction was introduced on the stay of Russians on its territory for up to 90 days.

A significant reaction to the listed sanctions was the comment of Russian President V.V. Putin, in which he said that, despite all the differences between Russians and Europeans, they have the same fundamental interests. For a united Europe to occupy its rightful place in the world, we need to join forces and not move away from each other.

Which organizations have introduced anti-Russian sanctions?

So, in response to Russia’s foreign policy actions in Crimea, a number of countries introduced sanctions, including visa restrictions and a ban on business contacts with certain Russian companies.

Which political institutions of the EU, USA and other countries joined the sanctions in response to Russian actions in Crimea, and what measures did they take against Russia?

OECD ( Organization for Economic Cooperation from English. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD ) is an economic organization of countries with developed economies that recognize democratic principles and the priorities of a free market economy.

The OECD Governing Council decided to suspend the admission of Russia to its ranks and expand interaction with Ukraine.

NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) is a military-political bloc that includes the USA, Canada and most EU countries. Founded April 4, 1949. Founded in the USA to counter the influence of the USSR on European countries.

NATO adopted the following sanctions against Russia:

• Joint military missions with Russia, as well as military and civilian contacts at all levels, have been suspended.
• Cooperation with Russia in the process of eliminating Syria's chemical weapons has been frozen. Russia has actually been removed from this process.
• All contacts, except for interaction between ambassadors and above, between NATO and the Russian Federation have been stopped.
• The NATO Parliamentary Assembly has ceased contacts with the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
• Employees of the Russian Mission to NATO are deprived of free access to its headquarters. The exception is the ambassador, his deputies and two assistants.

EU (European Union) is an economic and political association of 28 European countries. It was legally formalized in 1992 by the Maastricht Treaty and came into force on November 1, 1993.

The EU has imposed the following sanctions against Russia:

• At the beginning of March 2014, the EU suspended negotiations on easing the visa regime for Russians.
• In mid-March of the same year, a list of Russian and Crimean politicians and functionaries (individuals) who were prohibited from entering the EU or transit through its territory was published. In addition, all economic assets owned or controlled by these individuals were frozen.
• On March 20, 2014, the EU-Russia summit, which was planned for June of the same year, was cancelled.
• On March 21, 2014, due to the escalation of the confrontation in Crimea, the list of those subject to sanctions was expanded to 12 persons, including the head of the Rossiya Segodnya agency D. Kiselyov.
• On March 25, 2014, the EU banned its embassies in Russia from issuing all types of visas to residents of Crimea.
• In mid-April 2014, the European Parliament decided to recommend that all countries participating in the project abandon the construction of the South Stream gas pipeline.
• At the end of April 2014, the list of persons subject to sanctions was expanded by another 15 people.

Council of Europe – international organization for promoting the development of standards of law, democracy, human rights, rule of law and cultural contacts. Founded in 1949 and includes 47 states with a population of more than 800 million people.

The Council of Europe canceled all events in Russia, the Russian delegation lost its voting rights and its representatives were prohibited from holding leadership positions in PACE (Parliamentary Assembly). Until the end of 2014, Russian representatives are prohibited from participating in PACE observer missions.

Eurocontrol(eng. Eurocontrol) is a public organization for the safety of air navigation in Europe, formed in 1960. Designed to organize air traffic throughout Europe. Includes 40 member states, headquartered in Brussels.

Eurocontrol prohibits air travel to Crimea and flights within the air borders of Crimea.

Big Eight(eng. Group of eight, G8) is an informal club of the governments of Great Britain, Germany, the USA, Canada, Italy, France, Japan and Russia.

Club members suspended Russia's participation in the G8 along with preparations for the June meeting of the heads of G8 countries in Sochi.

Which countries have imposed sanctions against Russia

In addition to international organizations, individual countries have also imposed various sanctions against Russia for the events in Crimea.

• Australia canceled government visits to Russia, and also froze the accounts and banned entry of eight Russians and four Ukrainians who played key roles in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
• Albania joined the group of European countries that announced sanctions against Russia.
• Bulgaria dismantled the South Stream pipeline laid through its territory.
• Great Britain stopped supplies of military products to Russia and canceled joint military exercises.
• Germany stopped military cooperation with Russia: fulfillment of military contracts worth up to $1 billion, export of military products to Russia, sale of satellite technologies. The intergovernmental consultations “St. Petersburg Dialogue” have been terminated.
• Iceland joined the package of EU sanctions against Russia.

Canada, Given the presence of a powerful Ukrainian diaspora, it was among the leaders in the number of sanctions against Russia. It stopped all military interaction with Russia, expelled Russian military personnel from the country, closed visas and froze the assets of Russian and Crimean officials.

The Canadian government imposed sanctions against Russia Joint Stock Bank, Chernomorneftegaz, Expobank and Rosenergobank. In fact, Canadians have stopped cooperation with Russia on Arctic issues and joint space programs. On suspicion of his activities, the deputy military attaché of the Russian embassy was expelled from Canada, and several Russian officials were personally sanctioned.

Canadian sanctions mirror those imposed by the United States in almost all respects.

• Latvia stopped military cooperation with the Russian Federation and banned the broadcasting of the Rossiya channel on its territory.
• Moldova came out with sanctions against Russia along with EU countries.
• Netherlands interrupted cooperation with Russia in the military sphere.
• Norway interrupted military cooperation with Russia, joined EU sanctions and interrupted the process of creating an FTA with the Customs Union.
• New Zealand interrupted negotiations on the creation of an FTA with the Customs Union and recalled the Minister of Trade from Moscow.
• Poland canceled the forum of regions with the Russian Federation, and Polish post stopped delivery to residents of Crimea.

USA On March 4, 2014, investment and military cooperation with the Russian Federation was stopped, negotiations and conferences were cancelled. On March 17, Barack Obama signed a decree imposing sanctions on certain Russian officials, including frozen accounts and travel bans.

Among those under sanctions are senior officials of the Russian legislative, representative and executive powers of Russia. Already on March 20, 2014, the list was significantly expanded and additional sanctions were introduced against Rossiya Bank, in which the closest associates of President V. Putin have assets - Yu. Kovalchuk, the Rotenberg brothers, G. Timchenko, etc. March 27, 2014 In 2009, cooperation between the United States and the Russian Federation in the fight against drugs was terminated and the export of “potentially dangerous” products to the Russian Federation was stopped.

The list of US sanctions against Russia and the suspension of contacts between various organizations covers a variety of areas: contacts between law enforcement systems, cooperation in space and missile defense, energy systems, etc.

In April 2014, the list of Russian and Crimean officials and businessmen subject to sanctions was expanded by another 14 people. At the same time, sanctions were introduced against another 17 Russian companies. The United States has stopped supplies to Russia of high-tech products that can be used in the defense complex, and previously issued licenses were canceled.

Sanctions against companies

The list of companies and banks under sanctions is very wide. Among the most famous are the Rossiya and Sobinbank banks, whose payment cards (Visa and MasterCard) are no longer serviced anywhere in the world.

Companies associated with the president's inner circle (Stroygazmontazh, AkvaNika LLC, Transoil LLC, Avia Group Nord LLC, Zest CJSC, InvestCapitalBank, Stroytransgaz Holding, Avia Group LLC, Sobinbank, Sakhatrans , SMP Bank, Stroytransgaz, Stroytransgaz LLC, Stroytransgaz OJSC, Stroytransgaz-M LLC, Abros Investment Company and Volga Group) were also subject to sanctions.

The assets of these companies are frozen, exports to the United States have effectively ceased, and licenses for imports from the United States will most likely not be issued.

Sanctions from other countries

• Ukraine fully acceded to EU sanctions against the Russian Federation. Broadcasting on its territory of the Russian TV channels NTV Mir, Vesti, and Channel One was prohibited. World Wide Web", "Russia 24", "RTR Planet", military supplies to Russia were frozen, water supply to the Crimean Canal was stopped. More than a hundred Russian officials are deprived of the opportunity to enter the territory of Ukraine, and men aged 16-60 years are also not allowed to enter.
• France intends to terminate the agreement on the construction of Mistral helicopter carriers, and has also suspended almost completely military cooperation with Russia.
• Switzerland stopped the creation of an FTA with the Customs Union, coordinated EU sanctions with its own policy towards Russia, confirmed European visa restrictions for its territory, and suspended defense cooperation with Russia. 33 Russian officials who fell under EU sanctions are deprived of the opportunity to carry out financial transactions in Switzerland, introduced and then expanded its own sanctions list.
• Sweden froze cooperation with the Russian Federation in the military field.
• Montenegro joined the sanctions against Russia adopted by the EU.
• Czech banned the state postal service from delivering parcels and other correspondence to Crimea.
• Estonia froze the assets of a number of Russian officials and companies.
• Japan curtailed negotiations on visa facilitation, suspended investment agreements, and interrupted joint activities in the military sphere and aeronautics. The issuance of visas to several dozen officials and other persons has been stopped.

As you can see, the list of sanctions adopted against Russia is more than impressive. In a global economy, limiting the possibility of lending to basic industries cannot but affect the state of the Russian economy as a whole.

The need to repay loans from the main Russian debtors of Western financial institutions is already putting pressure on the Russian budget due to the need to allocate significant funds to maintain their solvency. The cessation of cooperation in the energy sector calls into question the development of promising oil and gas fields on the Arctic shelf, and a refusal to cooperate in the military sphere could significantly reduce Russian arms exports.

It cannot be said that the West is not interested in cooperation with Russia. In the German economy alone, about 400 thousand people are employed in enterprises working under German-Russian contracts. The economic feasibility of cooperation is frustrated by the political ambitions of the parties, who suffer mutual losses.

It is difficult to predict whether a way out of this impasse will be found in the near future. In any case, it seems that the parties are clear that a further deterioration of relations will seriously affect the economies of the countries, causing a drop in living standards and serious social upheaval.

This year, the Russian economy is experiencing enormous international pressure. Practical measures applied by foreign countries to Russia are expressed in various types of sanctions. What is their nature? What is the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy? What opportunities are opening up for the Russian Federation due to changes in the external environment?

The essence of sanctions

According to a common point of view in the expert community, the introduction of sanctions against the Russian Federation is mainly connected with Russia’s political position regarding the Ukrainian crisis. Western states, most of which are members of NATO, considered unacceptable the actions of the Russian authorities in relation to Crimea, as well as the eastern regions of Ukraine, in which, according to the countries of the Atlantic bloc, pro-Russian armed groups are operating.

As such, sanctions are economic and political in nature. According to the first part, this is a various kind of embargo, and according to the second, the inclusion of officials and legal entities in the relevant sanctions lists.

Periodization of sanctions

Let us consider the sequence in which sanctions were introduced against the Russian Federation. Experts believe that the first package of relevant measures was put into effect immediately after Russia supported the referendum in Crimea and included this region in its composition. Western states considered the actions of the authorities of the peninsula, as well as the position of the Russian Federation, illegal. Subsequent rounds of sanctions were associated, as analysts believe, with a further escalation of the situation in Ukraine.

Sanctions: a threat to the Russian economy

What could be the consequences of the introduction of sanctions for the Russian economy? Experts note that the greatest difficulties may arise in the area of ​​imports. The fact is that the Russian economy is quite dependent on the import of high technology, engineering products, medicines, and, to a large extent, food. Russia’s main import partners are precisely those that have applied sanctions against the Russian Federation. If the economic component of the relevant measures becomes systemic, then the shortage of imported products, experts believe, will not take long to occur.

Looking for an investor

The impact of sanctions on the Russian economy can be clearly seen in terms of attracting foreign investment. In particular, the credit ratings of the Russian Federation, which are the main indicator of the country’s attractiveness for foreign capital, may suffer. The result of a decrease in investment inflows may be a slowdown in GDP growth, economists believe. The Russian economy today, analysts say, is largely dependent on foreign capital. The RTS and MICEX stock exchanges fill liquidity largely by attracting foreign investment.

However, experts believe that foreign capital may not necessarily be of Western origin. It is quite possible that the place of investors from the EU and the US will be taken, say, by capitalists from the BRICS countries, which, according to many analysts, are now allies of Russia. And therefore, lowering ratings within the framework of methodologies developed in the US and EU may not play a significant role in terms of attracting investment.

Sanctions and the banking system

What can be seen as the impact of sanctions on the Russian banking system? In this area, analysts believe, the potential for threats to the country's economy is greatest. The fact is that the Russian banking system is so integrated into the global one (which, in turn, is largely controlled by the United States and its Western allies) that foreign financiers actually have access to key mechanisms for managing it. Accounts of American and European banks are actively used by Russian businesses. And if credit and financial institutions of Western countries decide to freeze the relevant assets, then this could cause, experts believe, significant damage to Russian enterprises working with foreign banks.

Sanctions (by the EU) were introduced against the largest Russian financial institutions, such as VTB, Sberbank, VEB. In particular, EU citizens have been prohibited from purchasing certain types of securities of these institutions since the beginning of August. According to analysts, in practice this means only one thing - these Russian banks cease to have access to capital markets. And therefore they may have problems paying off current debt obligations, obtaining new loans and investing.

VISA - in Russia?

One of the most significant precedents regarding such an aspect as the impact of sanctions on the banking system of the Russian Federation can be considered the blocking by the world's largest payment systems - VISA and MasterCard - of bank cards of several Russian credit and financial institutions, such as Sobinbank, JSCB Rossiya. , "SMP Bank". Clients of these banks could no longer pay using international acquiring channels. At the same time, experts agree that they will not completely disconnect from the Russian market. If this happens, the stability of the EU financial system will be threatened.

Another consequence of the sanctions may be a restriction on lending to Russian organizations in the West. Loan terms from Western banks are in many cases preferable to those within the Russian Federation (mainly due to lower interest rates). At the same time, the practical impact of sanctions on business in terms of lending may not be so significant if entrepreneurs can establish interaction with other markets in terms of loans. Russian experts see the Chinese version as one of the most promising.

Don't the banks care?

The Central Bank is ready to help Russian banks under sanctions. In particular, statements by the leadership of the Central Bank appeared in the media that, if necessary, international currency reserves could be used for this purpose. declared that they were ready for sanctions. Sberbank management, in particular, announced that the institution has sufficient resources, management experience and the level of expertise to continue operating in the current economic and political conditions. Gazprombank and VTB also assured the public that the actions of the US and the EU will not affect the financial stability of the institutions. Thus, the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy in terms of the banking sector may not be so significant.

Sanctions and opportunities

According to a number of economists, EU sanctions are an excellent reason to improve things in the Russian economy, which, due to its strong focus on oil exports, is not developing as dynamically as it could.

The greatest potential, analysts believe, lies in the area of ​​import substitution. Russia has sufficient resources - both in terms of production capacity and raw materials, and in terms of the scientific component - to produce the bulk of goods imported from abroad.

Response Potential

What are the mechanisms by which Russia can counteract sanctions? First of all, it is worth noting the law adopted in 2006, long before the obvious preconditions for the Ukrainian crisis began to take shape, regarding special measures of an economic nature that can be applied if the country feels the need to respond to illegal acts that constitute a threat interests of Russia, at the level of international relations. Therefore, basic legislative resources that can be used in response to the introduction of sanctions against Russia are available. Moreover, there is information that the structures of the Federal Assembly are working to create new legal acts that could expand the range of countermeasures of the Russian Federation in the face of international pressure. In particular, there is an opinion that the new laws may include provisions allowing for the confiscation of assets of Western companies located in the Russian Federation (both public and private).

Response to sanctions

Despite the fact that the Russian authorities considered the reasons for imposing sanctions, based on the comments of senior officials, to be unfounded and contrary to logic, countermeasures against Western countries, comparable to actions against Russia, were nevertheless applied. In particular, during the first wave of relevant international measures, the Russian authorities decided to create lists of persons with Western citizenship who are prohibited from entering the territory of the Russian Federation.

When VISA and MasterCard, as we said above, stopped servicing cards of several Russian banks, the Russian authorities decided to intensify work, firstly, to develop a national payment system, and secondly, to attract the Chinese MPS - UnionPay - to the Russian market. which could become a serious competitor to the current world leaders. This would cause significant damage, according to some economists - hundreds of millions of dollars.

The most serious package of Russian countermeasures was a ban on the import into the Russian Federation of a huge range of food products, mainly produced by the EU food industry (as well as enterprises in Canada, Australia and the USA). At the beginning of August, the Russian President issued a corresponding Decree. The list of goods included under the embargo included a variety of food products - meat, dairy products, fish, vegetables, fruits. In monetary terms, the total volume of relevant imports, as analysts calculated, at the time of the introduction of countermeasures was equal to $9 billion.

Also in August, adjustments were made in the light industry sector. In particular, in the government procurement segment, clothing made from fabrics, leather and fur were banned. True, experts did not consider this step of the Russian authorities a direct response to the sanctions, since the corresponding restriction affected supplies from all countries, not counting those that, along with the Russian Federation, are members of the Customs Union, and not just Western ones.

Consequences of "anti-sanctions" for the EU

We have already said that Western sanctions in the Russian economy can lead to problems at the import level, citing several industries as examples. But will foreign exporters of, say, mechanical engineering products themselves feel good? Those who supplied equipment to Russia? What are the possible consequences of sanctions for the EU? According to one of Reuters, Europeans most likely will not be comfortable. One of Russia's most active partners in the economic sphere is Germany. There are figures: about 300 thousand jobs in Germany in one way or another reflect the employment of the population in areas of interaction with the Russian Federation. Experts believe that exports from Germany to Russia may decrease by several tens of percent (mainly in the field of mechanical engineering). At the same time, there is an opinion that the aggravation of relations with the Russian Federation will not have a significant impact on the general state of the German economy as a whole. Simply because Russia’s current share in Germany’s foreign trade volume does not currently exceed 4%. Thus, experts see the impact of sanctions on business in Europe as fairly limited.

Food "anti-sanctions"

Let's consider the aspect concerning the most serious, according to experts, countermeasures of the Russian authorities - the ban on the import of products from the EU. Many analysts believe that European agricultural producers have suffered greatly from the embargo. For many of them, deliveries to Russia were a guarantee of profitability, and for some businesses, even the main sales channel. Analysts believe that food industry enterprises from the EU will not be able to find buyers in other markets very soon. And therefore, their business is probably unlikely to be profitable in the near future.

Europe Fund

At the same time, a number of experts believe that the consequences of the embargo for the EU may not be as significant as, in particular, the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy. The share of exports of agricultural goods from the European Union to the Russian Federation is less than 5% in the economy of this political association. And this despite the fact that Russia is the second largest sales market in this segment for the EU. There is also information that the European Union is going to compensate for possible losses from “anti-sanctions” on the part of the Russian Federation, using funds from a specially created fund. True, its value, according to analysts, is not very impressive - 400 million euros. The country that may suffer from the “anti-sanctions” more than others is Finland. Due to geographical proximity, this state and the Russian Federation have close relations. Approximately 25% of exports from Finland are sent to Russia. However, the share of food in it is less than 3%.

Prospects for self-sufficiency

What is the impact of sanctions on Russian agriculture? Some experts believe that the food embargo against EU producers has opened up enormous opportunities for Russian farmers. In many segments, market niches have become vacant, or at least have become significantly less saturated. There is a point of view that agricultural producers from Russia are not yet very ready for a sharp increase in production volumes, and in this case two scenarios are possible: filling niches at the expense of suppliers from those countries that were not subject to the embargo, or what is less desirable for the economy RF, the emergence of a noticeable commodity shortage. And, as a result, prices rise.

The Russian economy today, many experts believe, cannot yet fully guarantee effective import substitution - including in the field of agriculture. Analysts note that the increase in selling prices for various products occurred quite quickly after the introduction of “anti-sanctions”. According to analysts, by the end of 2014, some types of commodity items may rise in price by more than 30%. On average, for products that form the main basket, price increases may be about 15%. There is a possibility, analysts believe, that the quality of the products presented on the shelves will drop. In Russia, as well as in many countries from which goods are supposed to be imported, production standards are not as strict as in Europe.